Kamis, 21 Juli 2016

Our Experts Say Big Second Half Ahead For Stocks


 
 
Dear Investor,

As a reader of the daily Forbes Billionaire's Pro Perspectives, you've seen the incredible insight the expert founders of the Forbes Billionaire's Portfolio bring to the table.
  • They told us oil would bottom and bounce aggressively, and why. It's bounced nearly 100% since.
  • They told us to use the dip in stocks earlier this year as an opportunity to buy, while everyone else was saying "run." Stocks have rallied to new record highs.
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  • They've told us that stocks can go much, much higher in this economic climate. They've been right!
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But the founders of Forbes Billionaire's Portfolio think the real wealth–building opportunities may just be getting underway. They are convinced the second half of 2016 is going to be HUGE for stocks!

Here's what they're saying …

"If you awoke today from a decade–long slumber, and we told you that unemployment was under 5%, inflation was low, gas was $2.15, mortgage rates were 3.5%, you could finance a new car for 2% and the stock market was at record highs…you would probably tell us the outlook for the economy looks really, really good. Those are the conditions we have, yet most think the sky is falling.

As we've discussed, the central banks are in control, and they have been since the depths of the financial crisis. Say what you will, but they have—led by the Fed—orchestrated a global economy recovery, albeit much slower than typical post–recession recoveries, and have produced and preserved economic stability along the way. Playing a key role, in the face of intense scrutiny from the "run–away inflation" theorists, they have pinned down interest rates that have warded off a deflationary spiral and created the framework of incentives to hire, spend and invest.

With the above said, we think we could be on the precipice, if not the early stages, of an economic boom.

As for stocks within that context, today we want to revisit some of our previous analysis on where stocks can go from here…

  1. History

    The long–run annualized return for the S&P 500 is 8%. If we applied that number to the pre–crisis highs from 2007 of 1,576 on the S&P 500, we get 3,150 by the end of this year. That's 47% higher than current levels. That's what it would take to make up for the nine years that stocks have been knocked off path–just to simply get the S&P back in line with historical norms.
  2. Valuation

    In addition to the above, consider this: The P/E on next year's S&P 500 earnings estimate is just 16.9, near the long–term average (16). But we are in a very low interest rate environment. In fact, we are in the mother of all low–interest–rate environments (still near zero). With that, when the ten–year yield runs on the low side (it's very low), historically, the P/E on the S&P 500 runs closer to 20, if not north of it.

    If we multiply next year's consensus earnings estimate for the S&P 500 of $126.76 by 20 (were stocks to be valued in low rate environments), we get 2,535 for the S&P 500 by next year—18% higher."
Boy, it sure sounds like it's time to take action. So what do you buy?

That's always the tricky territory for investors. How do you find the next big winning stocks and stay away from the losers?

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Best Regards,
Charles Morgan

Charles Morgan,
Associate Publisher
Forbes Investing Newsletters


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